On the 14th of May, the Dolar Blue reached 100% higher than the official Argentine Peso exchange rate. The official rate of 5.22 Pesos/USD was dwarfed by the black-market rate of 10.45 Pesos/USD. It has since scaled back a bit to 9.4 as of writing.
What does this mean?
1. Argentina lies.
2. If you go on vacation in Argentina with US Dollars and change them through Arbolitos, you can have your vacation at half price. Party like a Rock Star.
Other examples abound. I have a travel agent in Argentina who plays the arbitrage between currencies, and I can save hundreds of dollars by booking flights through him if I pay in USD (we split the difference). He’s happy, I’m happy. This summer after I visit my mother in the USA, I will fly from Chicago to Indonesia, and then back again, for about USD$1800 round trip. Thanks, Kristina!
What does this mean for Argentina’s future?
1. They will devalue soon.
2. They will devalue soon.
3. They will devalue soon.
4. Argies are all using USD anyways despite the currency controls.
There’s no way around it. They will have to stop forcing people to go by an exchange rate that is twice as crappy as what folks are trading with now, and the only politically “viable” way to do it is to rob those who have saved in Pesos by chopping their currency off at the knees. Look for Chavez-style revaluation in the very near future.